| Friday | Saturday | Sunday | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine | ~ | ~ | ~ |
| At Treeline | ~ | ~ | ~ |
| Below Treeline | ~ | ~ | ~ |
Spring conditions dominate the snowpack in the region. Therefore we are concluding our regular forecast product for the season, and providing only general advice for making informed decisions and managing risk in spring conditions.
Avalanche danger can increase very quickly if it's raining or the sun and rising temperatures are working in concert. Anticipate avalanche activity when rain, strong solar radiation and/or warm temperatures cause the snowpack to thaw. Also, expect any new snow to be especially touchy to triggers during and immediately after a storm. The destructive potential of the ensuing avalanche depends primarily on the amount of new snow, with at least 30cm of new or wind-deposited snow required for serious avalanches, assuming no terrain traps are involved.
Dry or wet, loose-snow or slab avalanches are possible. These slides can run farther and gather more mass than expected producing large, destructive avalanches. Very deep, even full-depth avalanches are possible during extended periods of thawing without overnight refreezes and/or if significant rainfall soaks the snowpack. Recent or new avalanche activity is a clear signal that a high degree of caution is required.
Avalanche danger in spring is usually closely related to air temperatures and solar radiation. Danger is generally minimal early in the day when temperatures are cool, the sun is not yet affecting slopes or cornices above, and strong supportive melt-freeze crusts exist. Danger increases as temperatures rise, solar radiation intensifies, and surface snow becomes wet or slushy. If wet snow does not freeze overnight or if it's raining, all bets are off no matter what time of day. If it snows, avalanche danger is generally highest during and shortly after storms or squalls, especially in lee and cross-loaded terrain and if more than 20-30cm of new snow lies on smooth, hard crusts.
Be prepared to alter plans, adjust routes to avoid avalanche terrain, or even turn around and go back if you see signs of increasing danger, such as more than 5cms or so of wet/slushy surface snow, pinwheeling, and snowballing. It's possible for danger to rise from LOW to HIGH in 30-60 minutes or less and as early as 10:00 a.m. or sooner. Danger often increases more quickly and earlier on steep, high elevation, sunny slopes and ridgetop cornices than in lower elevation, shaded areas. A sluff, a loose wet slide, or a cornice failure from above could hit you or trigger an avalanche even if you are on a shaded slope that feels cold at the time. Be vigilant and keep an eye on what's going on above you at all times. Avalanche danger often is greatest and deteriorates most quickly in shallow or variable-depth areas, especially where facets or depth hoar are found at or near the base of the snowpack.
A high degree of caution is advised in places where rocks or small trees are visible and where deep snow is interspersed with shallow or windswept areas.
If there's any doubt about avalanche danger, use travel techniques that minimize risk: go across or down steep slopes one at a time; spread out when crossing runout zones; regroup in dense timber or on high ground; and travel on ridges whenever possible, but give cornices a wide berth. Always have a probe and shovel in your pack, wear your transceiver at all times, and practice rescue techniques regularly. If you are buried in an avalanche, you will likely not survive if your companions are not able to quickly find and dig you out.
Melt-freeze conditions dominate the snowpack at most elevations and on most aspects. Stability undergoes cycles driven by air temperatures and solar radiation: when crusts are frozen stability is good, when they are thawed stability is poor. On steep, high elevation, shaded slopes, melt-freeze conditions might not exist and dry settled snow may be found. Deeply buried, persistent weak layers may still exist in these locations and could be affected by large triggers such as cornice fall or surface slabs stepping down and creating deep slab failures. In shallow snowpack areas, basal facet or depth hoar layers should be treated with the same respect as any other persistent weak layer.
Prepared by Anna Brown