| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine | 3 Considerable | 3 Considerable | 3 Considerable |
| At Treeline | 3 Considerable | 3 Considerable | 2 Moderate |
| Below Treeline | 1 Low | 1 Low | 1 Low |
| Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alpine | 3 Considerable | 3 Considerable | 3 Considerable |
| At Treeline | 3 Considerable | 3 Considerable | 2 Moderate |
| Below Treeline | 1 Low | 1 Low | 1 Low |
The orange segments show which aspects are most affected by the primary concern. If the icon is completely orange, this means the primary concern exists on all slopes.
Alpine, Treeline and Below Treeline are separate zones with distinct characteristics. The arrow points to the zones most affected by the primary concern. For more information on elevation zones, click here.
Indicates the time of day where the primary concern is likely to be a problem. Avalanche conditions can change between shady, cool mornings and sunny, warm afternoons. If both icons appear, it means the primary concern is present all day.
Very warm temperatures and lots of sun over the weekend followed by cooling have significantly reduced (although not completely eliminated) the potential for triggering avalanches below about 1800m. I have reduced the BTL danger rating to reflect this but caution is still warranted on shaded slopes where no crust exists below Sunday night's snow--most likely the upper reaches of the BTL elevation band on N - E aspects.
It looks like we're on the verge of the "low probability/high consequence" phase of the current persistent slab problem. It's taken much longer to get here than normal and I'm not yet fully convinced. If this is really what's happening we are, or soon will be, in a situation where danger ratings will come down as the probability of triggering an avalanche becomes less, but the size of avalanches will be large so if caught, consequences are high. This will present a whole new decision making challenge in the days to come.
I'm concerned the avalanche activity data that indicates improvment is skewed. I think people are still being very careful where they go and that's making things look better than they really are.
Expect cool temperatures and light winds for the period. Light or no snow Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of light snow starting late Wednesday or early Thursday. Skies should be a mixed bag with everything from overcast to partly cloudy.
Avalanche activity is down although sizes remain impressive. This is the first indication the 25 days of surface hoarer may be ending. It'll take a couple more days of this trend before I'll buy in completely, though. That said, a trend to fewer but larger avalanches with greater consequences brings a whole new set of challenges, which I'll discuss Wednesday if I'm convinced we're there.
Terrain: I think most slopes below about 1800m with a bit of new snow on crusts are mostly good to go. Similarly steep, sunny slopes higher up with dust on crust are likely pretty good. All shaded areas with no crusts under Sunday night's snow should be treated with great caution and I suggest staying off or out from under anything over 20 degrees incline.
Risk Management: Resist the urge to ride aggressively on shaded slopes. I think it's worth giving these areas at least another couple of days to see what happens. These layers have provided us with many surprises and I'd hate to see someone get caught by the sting in the tail at the end of the active cycle.
Strong sun and warm temperatures created moist or wet snow on all aspects at low elevation and on southerly aspects higher. Cooling then formed crusts (now covered with a bit of new snow) and reduced instability in these areas. From high BTL and up, shaded slopes various persistent layers remain an issue where no crusts formed over the weekend. We are starting to see signs the February layers may be going into a dormant phase. I'm not fully convinced and will revisit this idea on Wednesday. Yet another surface hoar layer was buried on shaded aspects last night but it remains to be seen if it will be as problematic as previous ones; I suspect this March 7th layer will need more snow and/or wind loading before we see what it does.
Prepared by Karl Klassen
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